Auto Brands: Ignore the Future, Become the Past
What will consumers do in the future? This question leaves marketers dolefully scratching their heads. The combination of market complexity and a huge number of potential economic and cultural outcomes can produce an enormous array of market permutations.
Despite this, predicting future consumer behaviour - or at the very least hedging your bets against potential outcomes - has never been more important. Take the big three US automotive manufacturers: Ford, General Motors and Chrysler. Each is, to use a technical marketing term, absolutely screwed. This is not because they could not see the future, but because each chose to ignore the big bend in the road ahead.
Ford won plaudits last week for chief executive Alan Mulally's rescue plan, under which truck plants in North America are to be re-equipped to produce more fuel-efficient European models such as the Fiesta, and greater numbers of Ford's hybrid cars.
Ford does not want you to remember that in 2000 it committed to reducing the fuel consumption of its cars by 25% and selling 250,000 hybrid cars by 2010, before getting cold feet and opting for business as usual.
The lag between the two commitments could prove problematic. At present rates, I would estimate that Ford will run out of cash in 2011, and there is no guarantee that its new output will prove popular when it goes on sale in the US in 2010.
However, Ford staff can at least be glad that they don't work for Chrysler.
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